Annual General Meetings

TARRANT 2026 Annual General Meeting 29th of May, 2026

Summary

The Tarrant annual general meeting (AGM) at the Matrix Hotel in Edmonton had a program of 11 speakers, with 28 in room attendees and 20 on Zoom.

Some of the powerpoint presentations were given to us and are available on the TARRANT website: indicated by asterix*.

Our laboratory partner Nathan Zeylas of Alberta Provincial Laboratories (APL) highlighted the sequence of different phases of the diagnostic cycle of testing for respiratory viruses.

Rapid onsite tests for either SARS COV-2, Flu or RSV produce results in 2hrs. They are mostly used for inpatient testing.
An “all in one” testing called the Respiratory Pathogen Panel (RPP) tests for influenza, SARS COV-2 and all other main respiratory viruses at once. This is mostly used for community patients.
Standardised information on forms ensures lab staff has the right data.

Mathew Croxen from APL described genetic typing of the Flu A, Flu B and COVID viruses. This helps with:

Surveillance and understanding of the microbial population at community, provincial, national and global level.
Know changes to disease outcomes.
Identify outbreaks and clusters of infectious diseases.

Mathew Diggle* from APL highlighted presence of other respiratory viruses apart from Flu, COVID-19, and RSV during the respiratory season in Alberta.

Other viruses include: adenovirus, human metapneumovirus, parainfluenza, rhinovirus/enterovirus, and seasonal coronaviruses.
These viruses are not usually tested in most clinical scenarios, but the full panel is tested for epidemiological purposes, and is returned to Tarrant sentinels.

Emilie Toews* from the Tarrant team gave update on confirmed respiratory cases from the TARRANT program in the community over the last 5 seasons and focused on RSV. Our sentinels show that the majority of cases of cough and fever have identifiable viruses.

2021-2022 season - 62.8% positivity (highest).
2024-2025 season - 49.4% positivity.
2025-2026 (current) season - 58.7% positivity so far.
Overall higher positivity in females 59.5%, with median age of 37 years.
RSV has a seasonal distribution: from November to April with peak in late December or January.
We are accustomed to thinking about RSV as a disease that hospitalises young children and the elderly, but we found it occurs in all ages: 23% under age 5, 50% 5-59 years and 26% over 60.
At peak season among children presenting to Family Medicine with cough and fever, 40% of children under 1 have RSV, as do 30% of those 1 to 4 years.

Betsy Varughese from the Institute of Health Economics, University of Alberta described a forecasting process for Influenza, COVID-19 and RSV, using data from 3 sources;

Confirmed lab cases, hospital admissions, healthcare seeking behaviour and immunisation.
Models of the Influenza, COVID-19 and RSV virus.
The total number of cases from hospital occupancy and admissions.

She had made correct Forecasts for this season

Influenza to increase around October 19, 2025, and peak between Nov 30 and Dec 27, 2025.
COVID-19 to remain at a plateau all season.
RSV to peak between Dec 14, 2025, and Jan 4, 2026.

Respiratory virus forecasting is useful to provide insights on timing, magnitude and overall trends, and support health system planning for up to four weeks in advance.

Lea Separovic from BCCDC, discussed the Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network (SPSN) estimates of effectiveness of 2025/26 Influenza vaccine. It reduced risk of medically attended acute respiratory infections by;

~40% for influenza A (H3N2),
~30% for influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 and
~50% for influenza B.

Key points

Vaccine performance is underpinned by agent-host interactions
Integrated virological and immuno-epidemiological considerations are necessary for highly changeable viruses like influenza.
Main goals of vaccine effectiveness estimation are to improve understanding, by comparing effectiveness with virus structural changes. These insights enable WHO to optimize immunization programs.

Katie Dover from BCCDC and SPSN gave an update on estimated effectiveness of 2025/26 COVID-19 vaccine.

2025/26 LP.8.1 vaccine reduced COVID-19 risk by half.
In the context of low-level COVID-19 with higher influenza and other respiratory virus co-circulating, there is potential under-estimation of vaccine effectiveness.
WHO requires vaccine registry verification for >90% of records. Because registry access is denied to our research, Alberta is currently excluded from COVID-19 analyses so work is needed to address that.

Lynora Saxinger*, Professor of Infectious Diseases U of A, spoke on predicting the future of COVID-19. She started by asking us to remember the initial highly lethal COVID epidemic, and how it has changed. Since the Omicron variant evolved in 2022; its architecture has rearranged to survive through 3 major activities;

Different branches of the genome stitched together through recombination to form new lineages,
Converging with different viral families to unlock the human immune defence,
Rarely, a great genetic leap where new variants appear fully formed.

The newly updated COVID-19 vaccines show effectiveness at preventing infection and transmission by 43%-50%. Unlike flu where immunity fades slowly, for COVID it fades faster, meaning reinfection can often occur after 6 months. So, it appears less seasonal. Winter weather and indoor crowding act as amplifier for infection.

Vaccination helps delay mutation generation. As vaccine reduces the volume of infection, there will be fewer opportunities for mutation to occur. Based on our vaccination program, we may slowly move to a COVIDFLU winter season, but we must still prepare for the unexpected as long-term viral evolution is unpredictable.

Zainab Suleman from Alberta Health shared on the Respiratory Viruses vaccine effectiveness in Alberta. This season has had the highest number of influenza cases reported. Hospital admission rates have been high this season, particularly among older age groups. ICU admission rates have been lower or comparable to previous seasons. Key notes include:

Overall hospital admission rates for all ages this season- 83.2 per 100,000 population.
Overall ICU admission rates for all ages- 6.3.
Immunization coverage for both influenza and COVID-19 keeps reducing each season.
A coverage of 20% for Influenza and 8% for COVID-19 was recorded this season.

Shannon MacDonald shared her surveys on attitudes toward routine childhood vaccinations against influenza and COVID-19 in Canada. Findings showed:

Parents have more positive attitudes towards routine vaccine than influenza or COVID-19 vaccines.
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to influence routine vaccination perception among a minority of parents with over 30% reporting positive impacts.
Lastly, vaccination attitudes were like those reported prior to widespread COVID-19 vaccination rollout, though have become less positive than attitudes reported when COVID-19 vaccines were broadly available to those >12 years of age.

Dr Joe Vipond*, discussed airborne transmissions and why it matters. Most respiratory viruses (especially the COVID-19 virus) were believed to be transmitted only through contact and droplet, but he described evidence that the major transmission route is via aerosols. Droplets are particles bigger than 100 micrometers (>100mm) in size and drop to the ground due to gravity, aerosols are smaller particles suspended in air and light enough to float in the air and are carried by air currents. These are inhaled, rather than transmitting via mucus membranes. Examples are measles, chicken pox and tuberculosis.

COVID-19 was seen to spread in hospitals despite contact/droplet precaution, suggesting that aerosol transmission is the greatest mode of transmission regardless of social distance measures.

To prevent aerosol transmission, surgical type masks are insufficient: they work to reduce droplet transmission from the wearer, but do not stop aerosols from being inhaled around the edges of the mask. Respirators like N95 filter incoming air, so when wearing these, it is most important to fit closely to the face, around the mouth and nose, to provide good protection.

Improved air quality is also a valuable way to reduce transmission. This requires frequent air exchange and ultrafiltration. These will require re-engineering of ventilation systems: and there is reluctance to expend sufficient for hospitals, schools and other public buildings.

Since these are controversial ideas, he shared references and resources that the audience can use to educate themselves further.